BradEgeland.com
  • Welcome
  • Blog
  • Expertise
  • Resume
  • Software / Service Reviews
  • Contact
  • Videos
  • Books / White Papers
  • Mentoring Contact Form
  • Awards/Recognition
  • Templates & Downloads
  • Clients
  • Professional Services
  • Past Survey Results

Preparing for the Spread of the Coronavirus

2/28/2020

0 Comments

 
Picture
Picture
Picture
From a very informative preparatory article on CNN.com...

​On Wednesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said a new case of novel coronavirus, Covid-19, in California could be the first instance of "community spread" in the country. The news came a day after the CDC warned an outbreak of Covid-19 in the US is inevitable, stating that it's not a question of if, but when, it will happen.

At this point, the train has left the station for trying to contain the disease, and the CDC and other public health experts are preparing the US to switch to mitigating its impact.

Covid-19 will test our government's response and resiliency. How we weather the outbreak also hinges on our trust that the government has our best intentions at heart.When Covid-19 was first discovered, US public health officials worked to contain the outbreak with quarantines and travel restrictions. This was an aggressive approach that some have criticized, but it has been effective in delaying disease transmission within the US. To date, only a very small number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 have been diagnosed in America.

The recent worldwide escalation of coronavirus cases has made clear that the containment approach alone will no longer work. There are now over 40 countries with Covid-19. Many have fragile health systems that are already overburdened. Community transmission is occurring within multiple countries—meaning that it's not just travelers bringing back the disease, but people in the community who are transmitting it to others.

There is also growing evidence that Covid-19 can be found in people with minimal or no symptoms, and that asymptomatic people can be contagious. Very likely, there are far more cases than are being detected all around the world. This will almost certainly get worse. Harvard University epidemiologist Dr. Marc Lipsitch provided a startling estimate: within the coming year, 40 to 70 % of people around the world could be infected with the virus that causes Covid-19.

Shutting down borders will no longer work. In fact, they can have unintended negative effects in the form of disrupting supply chains of medical equipment and life-saving medications. The initial containment efforts were necessary—and they worked. But when the disease reaches a much larger scale, the US will run out of capacity to keep on imposing quarantines, which won't be effective then either.

So what happens next? The CDC warned that "disruption to everyday life may be severe." We have seen this play out in China, Japan, Italy, Iran, Korea, and other countries with significant numbers of affected people. Mass gatherings have been postponed or changed, with conferences canceled and sporting events played with no live audience. Workers are telecommuting and students are staying home from school. If there are sudden clusters of Covid-19 community transmission in the US, these measures could be implemented here too.

Whether they do depends on our rapidly evolving understanding of the disease. New data are coming out every day about Covid-19, and one critical piece of information is exactly how deadly this disease is. At the moment, it appears that Covid-19 has a 2% fatality rate—lower than SARS and MERS (10% and 30-40%, respectively), but higher than influenza (0.1%). Given the lack of ongoing surveillance and high numbers of people who are not being tested and diagnosed, some public health experts predict that the actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is much lower than 2% and may be closer to 0.1%.

If that's the case, Covid-19 could be treated as we treat influenza. The flu is a serious seasonal illness that we work hard to prevent and treat. We develop flu vaccines and encourage everyone to obtain them. Those who get the flu and have mild symptoms self-isolate at home and avoid spreading it to others. Those who have much more severe symptoms get hospital care. There are some treatments available that reduce the severity of flu. Some people die from the flu, while the vast majority recover. It's a serious illness, but we don't close schools, restrict travel, and stop global economy because of it.

We don't yet know if the trajectory of Covid-19 will be mild, moderate, or severe. The CDC warnings are appropriate at this time, because our institutions and the American people need to be prepared for the next stage of this outbreak. Health departments and hospitals have pandemic response plans that they need to be reviewing and testing now. The federal government needs to make funding urgently available for local health departments, who are on the frontlines of the epidemic. Local public health does the work of outbreak preparedness and response every day. They know how to handle epidemics, but they need the resources to do their work. And all these institutions have to protect healthcare workers, without whom we have no chance of combating any epidemic.We as the public can prepare ourselves too.

Businesses and schools can prepare contingency plans. Families can formulate plans about telework and think through options for caring for the young and the elderly, should self-isolation be needed. Those with chronic illnesses can prepare to have a three-month supply of medications on hand. (Stockpiling other supplies is not recommended; the run on surgical masks—which have no proven value for everyday citizens—is making it hard for healthcare providers to access them.) Everyone can practice good hygiene: a simple measure like handwashing with soap and warm water reduces the likelihood of contracting respiratory viruses. And we should continue to follow the expert guidance of the CDC and local public health officials.

Finally, the US government must continue to be transparent. Outbreaks are quickly evolving situations. Constant reevaluation is the bedrock of good public health response, and changing course is actually a good thing—it means that officials are responding to new evidence and being nimble with their plans. Public health depends on public trust, and people must be able to trust that our government is following the guidance of experts and that they are being transparent and open with us.

0 Comments

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.


Leave a Reply.

    Author:

    Picture

    Brad Egeland


    Named the "#1 Provider of Project Management Content in the World," Brad Egeland has over 25 years of professional IT experience as a developer, manager, project manager, cybersecurity enthusiast, consultant and author.  He has written more than 8,000 expert online articles, eBooks, white papers and video articles for clients worldwide.  If you want Brad to write for your site, contact him. Want your content on this blog and promoted? Contact him. Looking for advice/menoring? Contact him.

    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    December 2011
    November 2011
    October 2011
    September 2011
    August 2011
    July 2011
    June 2011
    May 2011
    March 2011
    January 2011
    December 2010
    November 2010
    October 2010
    September 2010
    August 2010
    June 2010
    May 2010
    April 2010
    March 2010
    November 2009

    RSS Feed

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.